El Niño and the Possible Super Niño: Impact on Argentina

The El Niño phenomenon is active in 2026, with NOAA estimating a 96 % probability of continuation until February 2027 and the possibility of reaching Super Niño status. The event could bring intense rains to central and northern Argentina, flooding in the Littoral and Northeast, soil saturation in the Pampas and AMBA, and mixed effects on agricultural production.

Probability and Duration

El Niño is active in 2026 and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates a high probability that the phenomenon will continue until the end of 2026. In May, NOAA estimated a 96 % chance that it will persist between December 2026 and February 2027. The maximum intensity, however, remains uncertain and the Super Niño category remains a possible scenario, not confirmed.

Regional Impact

The phenomenon usually favors higher rainfall in the central and northern parts of the country, although distribution varies by region and time of year.

Littoral and Northeast

Abundant rains can cause the Paraná and Uruguay rivers to rise, generating flooding in areas near watercourses.

Pampas Region and AMBA

Intense rainfall can accumulate over short periods, saturating the soil and causing urban flooding, especially in the Buenos Aires City Autonomous Zone.

Rural and Production

Increased humidity can benefit some crops, but can also cause complications if excess water occurs, making sowing and harvesting tasks difficult.

Official Recommendations

The National Meteorological Service (SMN) maintains continuous monitoring of El Niño’s evolution and its potential effects on Argentine territory. Its forecasts allow anticipation of precipitation and temperature scenarios, but do not determine the occurrence of specific storms months in advance. In the coming months it will be important to stay alert to official warnings and updates, especially regarding possible intense rains, storms, and river rises.

In short, El Niño is active in 2026, but the exact intensity is still unknown. Its evolution will be key to understanding how it will finally impact Argentina’s climate.